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Is Using The Kelly Criterion A Good Sports Betting Strategy?

For people who are looking to gamble for the sake of intellectual growth, like OP says, tiny quantities should work. Poker is the big example I can think of where this can make sense. With most other forms of gambling, like blackjack, the odds are against you.

The Essence Of The Kelly Criterion For Beginner Players

It works on the principle of sizing the bet appropriately so as to arrive at a better conclusion. One of the key elements that is required in the world of gambling and betting is the better management of funds. Many gamblers often end up losing stefan-schroeder-consulting.de money largely because they do not have a plan when it comes to sizing the bet. The Kelly staking strategy is seen as an important criterion in the world of finding value in a bet. Several strategies are available to find value and the Kelly criterion often ranks at the top. That is the reason why many old hands at football betting take a dim view when it comes to utilizing the Kelly Criterion during their sports betting session.

Capital Allocation Under Regret And Kataoka Criteria

Win/loss ratio – equal to the total positive trade amounts, divided by the total negative trading amounts. Although used for investing and other applications, the Kelly Criterion formula was originally presented as a system for gambling. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John L. Kelly Jr. while working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories.

You can also adjust the fractional Kelly Criterion percent, in order to adopt a more conservative betting strategy. I’ve considered not using full kelly to deal with being slightly inaccurate. If the number I have is 65% win rate, I may bet kelly for 60% win rate. Let’s further say your well thought out and back tested handicapping system wins 55% of the time. Let’s say the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with a money line of -110. After dotting all your “I”s and crossing all your “t”s, your system has the dodgers winning.

Deposit Methods

A fractional Kelly simply uses a fractional amount (usually ½) of the stake devised by the Kelly Criterion. However just as clearly if you place that bet 100 times you are just as likely to win as many bets as you are to lose those bets. So if you bet all your money each time, then times that you get lucky and win more times than you lose, for instance win 56 times and lose 44 times, you will win a lot of money. However the person whose luck is exactly average will win 50 times and double their money, and lose 50 times and cut their money in half, and leave with the same 100 dollars they started with. Interestingly enough, the Kelly criterion is used in the investing world as well. It’s a formula used for money management and asset allocation, named after the scientist at the prestigious Bell Labs, John Kelly.

And even though I didn’t redeploy right away, I redeployed a lot faster than I think I would have otherwise, without having that feeling of shell shock. Like, needing to deploy when you’re at the peak of most fear, that type of stuff. So I think another lesson was just you get better at it every time. And knock on wood, we’re gonna be investing for another sixty to eighty years, so we’ll have lots of practice.

You might also hear this called “betting against the public underdog” because the majority of the public usually bets on the favorite. By exploiting the line change you can place an opposite bet to your first wager and sometimes win them both. The gambler was now looking at a potentially massive payday. By betting opposite to the original wager, he can lock in a profit. What is important to remember is making sure the odds are offering the right value and you’re evaluating all the factors accurately.